Where the hurricanes hit

by Susan Kelly and Adrienne Lewis, USA TODAY

States with the most direct hits by major hurricanes (categories 3 - 5) from 1851 to 2004

Applications: weather; analysis, technology

What do the above states have in common? What ingredients do you think are necessary to form a hurricane? Develop a theory hat explains why hurricanes are more likely to hit Florida than South Carolina. Then, attempt to explain why most hurricanes occur in August, September and October.

Hurricanes need three things to thrive: ocean water above 80 degrees F, winds converging from different directions over the warm ocean, and a high pressure area in the upper atmosphere above the gathering storm. Considering this, how do you think forecasters spot hurricanes and predict their paths?

The National Hurricane Center uses satellite photos, weather balloons, Gulfstream jets and computer models to predict and track hurricanes. However, even with these tools forecasters must rely on their intuition and experience. Hurricanes are too unpredictable for technology alone to track. Commenting on this fact, USA TODAY weather editor Jack Williams says hurricane science is also an art. Is this true of all sciences? Explain.

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